This growing hesitation is mirrored in recession expectations. The share of American travelers who believe the U.S. will enter a recession in the next six months remains elevated at 44.7%, holding essentially steady month-over-month (-0.8 points), but standing +9.3 points higher than a year ago. Nearly half (48.5%) also report being more careful with their money due to recession fears, reinforcing a mindset of vigilance rather than retrenchment.
Travel Intent Softens, but Commitment Remains
Against this economic backdrop, travel intent entering 2026 is noticeably more muted than it was at the start of last year. Just 23.6% of American travelers expect to travel more for leisure in the next year, down -8.3 points compared to December 2024. Similarly, the share expecting to spend more on travel fell to 29.5%, a -5.0-point year-over-year decline.
This is not a signal that Americans are disengaging from travel—but rather that they are becoming more selective. The average estimated maximum annual leisure travel budget dipped to $5,511 in December, down -11.3% month-over-month and -6.6% year-over-year, marking the lowest level since May 2025, when tariff-related economic uncertainty peaked. Still, travel remains a near-term budget priority for more than half (55.4%) of American travelers, only slightly below last year (-2.8 points), underscoring that demand is being refined, not abandoned.
This growing hesitation is mirrored in recession expectations. The share of American travelers who believe the U.S. will enter a recession in the next six months remains elevated at 44.7%, holding essentially steady month-over-month (-0.8 points), but standing +9.3 points higher than a year ago. Nearly half (48.5%) also report being more careful with their money due to recession fears, reinforcing a mindset of vigilance rather than retrenchment.
Past Month Travel Volume Suggests a Strong Holiday Finish
Despite softer expectations for the year ahead, December travel behavior points to a strong finish for 2025. More than two-thirds (68.6%) of American travelers reported taking an overnight leisure trip in the past month, up +3.0 points from November and outperforming December 2024 by +4.4 points.
Trips to visit friends and relatives were especially robust. Overnight VFR travel reached 50.2% in December, a +5.9-point increase month-over-month and +4.3 points year-over-year. Day trips were also healthy, though less exceptional: 50.4% took a leisure day trip (+1.7 points MoM), while 46.1% reported a day trip to visit friends or relatives (+2.1 points MoM, +0.9 points YoY). Taken together, these indicators suggest the holiday season delivered solidly—even as travelers remain cautious about what comes next.
What’s Ahead: Slightly Fewer Trips and Shorter Planning Horizons
Looking forward, American travelers expect to take an average of 3.8 leisure trips in the next year, down from 4.0 in November and slightly below the 3.9 reported in December 2024. Notably, expected trip volume varies meaningfully by demographic. Millennials anticipate fewer trips than average (3.6), while Boomers expect more (3.9). Income remains a strong divider: travelers earning $200K+ expect an average of 4.9 trips in 2026, compared to just 3.1 trips among those earning under $50K.
Travel planning windows, which expanded during the post-pandemic “revenge travel” period, have now stabilized at a slightly shorter and more normalized level. After averaging roughly 10.3 weeks in 2023 and stretching further in early 2024, planning windows in late 2025 are holding around 11 weeks. Younger travelers plan on much shorter timelines—9.2 weeks for Gen Z and 10.1 weeks for Millennials—while Boomers continue to plan further ahead at 11.6 weeks. This suggests that flexibility and last-minute influence will remain critical, particularly for younger segments.
A Pulse Check on 2026 FIFA World Cup Travel Interest
With 2026 now underway, attention is increasingly focused on marquee events taking place across the U.S. More than one-quarter (27.3%) of American travelers express at least some interest in traveling for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Interest is especially high among Gen Z travelers (51.5%), Hispanic/Latino travelers (48.7%), Black/African-American travelers (43.2%), Millennials (41.6%), and parents of school-aged children (41.0%).
Geography also matters. Travelers in the Northeast over-index for World Cup interest (31.4%), while Midwestern travelers under-index at 22.9%. Destination preferences skew coastal, with Los Angeles (32.4%) and New York City (30.1%) leading, followed by Miami (25.2%), Dallas (22.0%), and San Francisco (20.4%). Importantly, interest is strongest among travelers who live near host cities, signaling that drive markets—and not just long-haul visitors—will be a critical source of World Cup-related demand.
In Summary:
American travelers are entering 2026 with intention rather than exuberance. Travel remains essential—but choices are more deliberate, budgets are tighter, and expectations are grounded. For travel brands and destinations, the opportunity lies in meeting travelers where they are: value-conscious, experience-driven, and still eager to go—just with clearer eyes and sharper priorities.
For the complete set of findings, including data on your audience segments and historic brand performance of your travel brand or destination, subscribe to The State of the American Traveler Insights Explorer tool.
Learn more about the latest trends during our monthly livestream.
To make sure you receive notifications of our latest findings, you can sign up here.
Have a travel-related question idea or topic you would like to suggest we study? Let us know!
We can help you with the insights your tourism strategy needs, from audience analysis to brand health to economic impact. Please check out our full set of market research and consulting services here.
