American financial sentiment softened meaningfully this month. Recession expectations remain elevated following March’s sharp spike. Fuel prices have rapidly become the sharpest cost friction point in years. Travel excitement has dipped to its lowest reading of the year, and forward-looking trip plans have declined across the summer calendar. Yet when it comes to actual travel behavior — trips taken, plans protected, spending prioritized — American travelers have not stood down. Trip volume was up in May across every measured category. Travel spending prioritization is holding at its 2025 average. And when asked what they would cut first from household spending, Americans still rank leisure travel fifth — below dining out, subscriptions, entertainment, and coffee shops. This month’s The State of The American Traveler study shows a traveler under real pressure, making harder trade-offs — and still choosing to travel.
Financial Sentiment Softens — Back to Levels Last Seen in 2024
After last month’s somewhat more stable tone, financial sentiment among American travelers pulled back meaningfully this month. The share of travelers reporting their household is financially better off compared to a year ago declined to 29.2 percent, down -4.0 percentage points from last month’s 33.2 percent. The share feeling worse off rose to 28.7 percent — bringing the two readings into near-parity for the first time in this tracking, a convergence that reflects just how split the financial picture has become. The proportion feeling better off has now fallen back to levels last seen in 2024, erasing the modest gains built through 2025.
Forward-looking expectations also weakened. Just 40.6 percent of American travelers now expect to be better off financially a year from now, down -3.7 percentage points from April.
Recession expectations, meanwhile, remain elevated following the sharp spike recorded in March. After rising from 40.4 percent in February to 51.9 percent in March, expectations pulled back modestly to 47.5 percent in April before ticking back up to 51.0 percent in May — a +3.5 point month-over-month increase. The picture is not one of steadily rising fear, but of persistently elevated anxiety that has not meaningfully receded since March’s spike. Translating expectation into behavior, 55.7 percent of American travelers say they are currently being careful with their money because of recession concerns.
Travel Spending Indicators Soften — But Hold Historical Ground
The softening in financial confidence has carried into key travel spending indicators. As many Americans now say it is a bad time to spend on travel as say it is a good time. Currently, 31.6 percent said now is a good time to spend on leisure travel — essentially matched by the 30.1 percent saying it is a bad time. This near-convergence is historically unusual and signals that the consumer psychology around travel spending has shifted meaningfully since the beginning of the year.
The share for whom leisure travel is a high spending priority for the next three months fell to 57.9 percent — down -4.3 percentage points from last month. While that month-over-month decline is notable, context matters: 57.9 percent matches the 2025 full-year average exactly, suggesting this month’s reading represents a return to baseline after several months of above-average prioritization, rather than a structural deterioration.
Alarmingly, the average maximum annual leisure travel budget dropped to $5,122 in May, down significantly from $6,429 in April and from March’s record high of $6,630. It is also down from the $5,508 reported at the same point last year.
Expected leisure trip volume also declined, reaching a one-year low of 3.6 trips anticipated over the next twelve months — down from 4.0–4.1 in Q1. The generational picture provides some nuance: Gen Z still plans an average of 4.3 trips in the next year, the highest of any generation. Millennials project 3.7 trips, while Gen X (3.4) and Boomers (3.6) are more restrained.
Looking at which specific months travelers have trips currently planned, the summer booking calendar has softened from last month’s readings. July — the peak of summer — is now at 32.3 percent, down from 36.8 percent last month. August is at 28.0 percent, down from 29.8 percent. September has eased to 24.4 percent from 25.8 percent. Meanwhile, the share saying they have no trips currently planned has risen to 15.0 percent, up from 11.8 percent last month. These are consistent, directional declines across the forward booking window — a signal worth monitoring as we move into the core of the season. One potential offset: domestic trip planning windows appear to be shortening. The average lead time for planning a week-long domestic leisure trip fell to 10.3 weeks — the lowest reading of the year and down from 11.2 weeks just last month — and the share of travelers planning just one to four weeks out jumped to 23.6 percent, up from 18.2 percent last month. Some of what looks like missing demand in the forward booking data may simply be decisions that haven’t been made yet.
On spending outlook, 31.0 percent expect to spend more on leisure travel in the next 12 months, while 21.0 percent expect to spend less. And despite mounting cost pressures, 55.2 percent agree that travel remains a worthwhile investment even in a recession — a majority, if a somewhat smaller one than in prior months.
Travel Excitement Dips to a Year-to-Date Low
One of the more nuanced signals in this month’s data comes from travel excitement. American travelers’ enthusiasm for leisure travel in the next twelve months, measured on an 11-point scale, fell to 8.0 — a year-to-date low and down from an average of 8.2 a year prior. While 8.0 remains an elevated reading in the context of the full historical series, the downward move is meaningful. This metric is certainly one we will be carefully watching in the coming months.
The Calculated Traveler: Cutting Elsewhere to Protect the Trip
Even as cost pressures mount, American travelers are showing a clear and consistent preference for protecting their travel plans over cutting other discretionary spending. This is the defining behavioral pattern of summer 2026 — and it holds even in a month when most financial indicators softened.
Currently, 42.1 percent of American travelers say they are more willing to cut back on everyday spending than on travel this summer. Millennials (48.6%) and Gen X (44.4%) are especially committed to this trade-off, while Boomers, at 35.6 percent, are somewhat less absolute but still protective of travel. When asked what they would cut from household spending first if needed, dining out leads at 53.8 percent, followed by subscriptions and streaming services (36.6%), entertainment, events or attractions (32.8%), and coffee shops (28.6%). Leisure travel or vacations ranks fifth at 27.4 percent — behind four categories that feel more easily sacrificed in the moment.
At the same time, affordability remains a genuine psychological barrier. Nearly half of American travelers (45.6%) agree that travel feels like a luxury that is hard to really afford right now — a figure that rises to 52.7 percent among Millennials and 55.6 percent among Gen Z, the cohorts simultaneously most motivated and most financially stretched.
When travelers do reduce spending, the preferred strategies are taking fewer trips (41.3%), traveling closer to home (33.5%), and choosing less expensive destinations (33.5%) — not downgrading accommodations or reducing in-trip spending, which rank considerably lower at 24.7 percent and 22.2 percent respectively.
Fuel Costs: Summer Travel’s Defining Adversary
Gas prices as a deterrent to travel have nearly tripled since February 2026 — from an all-time low of 12.0 percent to 34.2 percent this month, a three-year high. This is the steepest and fastest rise in this metric recorded in the last four years, and it is now the second-ranked barrier to travel behind only general high costs (38.0%).
Nearly three in four American travelers (74.3%) say they are concerned about fuel costs affecting their ability to travel this summer. Gen Z travelers express the highest concern at 85.9 percent, followed by Gen X at 79.7 percent. Boomers register 73.4 percent concern and Millennials 67.7 percent. Among those who are concerned, 38.0 percent report planning to take fewer leisure trips compared to a typical summer, while only 44.1 percent expect to take about the same number.
When travelers do adjust, the preferred strategies are: take fewer trips (41.3%), travel closer to home (33.5%), choose less expensive destinations (33.5%), and drive instead of fly (19.4%).
Compounding the domestic picture, nearly two-thirds of American travelers (63.9%) worry that Americans may not be as welcome abroad as they once were — with Gen Z (78.6%) and Boomers (71.1%) expressing the highest concern.
Recent Travel Activity Holds Firm Despite Softening Sentiment
Despite the softening across nearly every forward-looking indicator, actual May travel activity increased across every measured category. More than half of American travelers (52.7%) reported taking an overnight leisure trip in May, up from 52.1 percent in April and well above May 2025’s 45.7 percent. Overnight trips to visit friends and relatives rose +4.1 percentage points to 48.6 percent, reflecting the busy early-summer travel season. Day trip activity similarly accelerated, with 54.1 percent reporting a leisure day trip, up from 51.4 percent in April, and 47.5 percent taking a day trip to visit friends and family, up from 42.6 percent.
The divergence between softening forward indicators and still-strong actual travel behavior is the defining feature of this wave — and the key tension that the industry should hold in mind. Travelers are signaling greater caution about the future while continuing to follow through on existing plans. Whether the affordability squeeze begins to suppress actual volume as we move deeper into the summer is the critical question our next survey will begin to answer.
FIFA World Cup: Interest Holds as Tournament Kickoff Arrives
With the 2026 FIFA World Cup days away from kicking off, American traveler interest is holding near its recent level. Right now, 28.1 percent of American travelers expressed interest in traveling to experience World Cup games and events — essentially flat from last month.
Generational skew remains pronounced: Millennials lead at 45.1 percent, followed by Gen Z at 38.3 percent, while Boomer interest is notably lower at 14.0 percent. Among those interested in attending U.S. events, Los Angeles (31.6%) tops the preferred host city list, followed by Miami (29.9%), New York City (27.3%), Dallas (19.7%), and San Francisco (18.5%).
Trip structure skews toward multi-night, higher-spending itineraries: 40.9 percent plan an overnight trip covering multiple matches, 31.8 percent plan an overnight trip for a single match, and 17.4 percent anticipate a day trip. For host-city destinations and their hospitality ecosystems, the data continues to confirm an extended-stay, higher-spending audience.
Looking Ahead
This is a month of productive tension. Sentiment has softened, budgets have pulled back from record highs, trip expectations have dipped to a one-year low, and the forward booking calendar has eased across the summer window. Fuel costs are creating real friction — particularly for drive-market travel and Gen X households — and travel excitement is at its lowest point of the year.
And yet: actual trip-taking is up. Travel spending prioritization is holding at its 2025 average. Travel ranks fifth — not first — on the list of what Americans would cut from household budgets. A majority still see it as a worthwhile investment even in a recession. Gen Z is still planning more than four trips in the next year. And 42 percent say they will cut everyday spending before they cut their summer travel.
The industry’s opportunity in this environment is specific. Proximity and drive-market accessibility are genuine competitive advantages. Value transparency is a conversion tool. Safety and welcome remain factors that influence destination selection. And the audiences most financially stretched — Millennials and Gen Z — are the most motivated to find a way to travel regardless.
Our June survey will arrive at the heart of peak season. We will be watching whether the behavioral resilience documented in May holds — or whether the accumulated pressure of fuel costs, economic anxiety, and softening excitement finally begins to show up in the numbers that matter most.
