American travelers have stopped their freefall in negative financial sentiment but remain cautious—they are still committed to spending on travel but trip behaviors look poised for some adjustments, including a lessening likelihood of international travel. On the other hand, the Recession-Proof Traveler proves a lucrative traveler profile for marketers to target.
American Travelers’ Financial Outlook Stabilizes But Stops Short of Optimism
- As the initial deluge of news around U.S. trade policy and related concerns over the economy abated somewhat, American travelers’ financial sentiment and outlook similarly stabilized, though indicators continue to suggest a latent wariness among travelers. Current financial wellness for American travelers is holding stable this month at 30.6 percent reporting their household financial situation is better compared to last year, down -0.3 points compared to last month and on par (+0.1 points) with the same time last year. Expectations for future finances rebounded compared to last month at 45.3 percent (+3.1 points) reporting that they anticipate they will be better off financially a year from now, just below the same time last year (46.3%). Looking at how the different generational cohorts perform across these metrics, Millennials are most likely to feel they are better off now (41.4% compared to 22.9% of Boomers, 28.7% of Gen X, and 35.3% of Gen Z), and similarly Millennials more likely to feel they will be better off in a year (59.7% compared to 34.1% of Boomers, 43.4% of Gen X, and 54.1% of Gen Z).
- After increasing dramatically between February and April, American travelers’ expectations for a U.S. economic recession in the next six months has now lessened by -7.0 points compared to last month, at 47.9 percent. Nevertheless, this remains quite elevated relative to six months ago, when this metric averaged 35.0 percent and is also +5.4 points higher than the same time last year. Travelers were asked if they have changed how careful they are being about their money due to concerns about an upcoming recession. Half (50.7%) said they have increased their caution about spending, compared to 30.2 percent who said they are not affected and 19.1 percent who have decreased how cautious they are being.
Travel Spending Looks Healthy, but Americans’ Approach to Travel is Showing Signs of Change–Including a Lessening Likelihood of International Travel
- This cautious but stable financial sentiment reflects in how American travelers are thinking about spending on leisure travel. The share of those who say that now is a good time to spend on travel remains relatively flat at 31.3 percent, up +1.2 points compared to last month but still down (-3.0 points) compared to the same time last year (34.3%). Interestingly, Millennials were the most likely to agree that now is a good time to spend on travel (36.3%), while Gen Z were the least likely (27.3%), despite the latter having more security around their financial stability compared to Boomers and Gen X.
- More than half of American travelers continue to prioritize leisure travel as a spending priority for the next three months (57.1%), down -3.4 points compared to last month but still relatively strong and not significantly below the past-12-month average of 58.5 percent. The maximum travel budget for the next year is on par with last month at $5,508, maintaining a lower amount than the all-time high reported in February ($5,858) but still above what was reported the same time last year ($4,454). This is also the first increase seen in this metric since February of this year. Furthermore, 34.0 percent of American travelers say they consider spending money on travel to be essential.
- In terms of anticipated travel volume, 91.2 percent will travel and 86.5 percent already have existing trips planned over the next year. However, the average number of expected leisure trips in the next year continues to trend downwards, coming in at 3.5 trips expected in the next 12 months, down from an average of 3.7 trips last month. This is the second consecutive month-over-month decrease for expected leisure trips in the next year.
- Additionally, in terms of near-term travel trends, Future Partners has been tracking since February what budget-saving summer travel strategies American travelers are prioritizing, and the share of those who say they will drive instead of fly to save month has seen a steady increase, climbing from 35.6 percent last month to 38.8 percent this month, an increase of +3.2 points. We continue to see that more than one in three say they will stick to a strict travel budget (36.7%), opt for budget-friendly destinations (35.2%), and/or focus on free or low-cost experiences (35.1%).
- International travel likelihood in the next year continues to trend down, with just 41.6% of American travelers reporting they are likely to leave the country for a leisure trip in the next year, dropping from 45.7 percent last month. This is down -6.6 points compared to the all-time high that was reported in February 2025 (48.2%). Politics and policy may play a role in this decline. When asked if any recent changes or uncertainty in U.S. government policy made them reconsider or delay international travel plans, 11.0 percent said yes (23.9% said no but that they had considered it). When those that are likely to take an international trip in the next year were asked how concerned they are that sudden policy changes could impact their trip, 56.2% said they had at least moderate concerns. In addition, 61.7 percent expressed concerns that changing international politics/policies could lead to longer wait times, stricter screenings, or other complications at customs for Americans entering or exiting countries in the next year.
A First-Look at the Recession Proof Traveler
- As the industry navigates shifts, Future Partners will be shining a spotlight on what we are calling “the Recession Proof Traveler.” This traveler profile is defined as American travelers who – even in an economic recession – would still consider travel to be a worthwhile investment and expect to take at least 3 leisure trips in the next year. The Recession Proof Traveler currently represents 34.9 percent of American travelers. These travelers are more financially well off compared to the average American traveler and are more likely to be avid travelers. 81.4 percent of recession proof travelers said they will prioritize leisure travel in their budgets in the near term, compared to 44.1 percent of non-recession proof travelers. They also have a much higher leisure travel budget for the next year at $8,545 versus $3,900 for non-recession proof travelers. In fact nearly six in ten (58.5%) recession proof travelers said they feel that spending money on travel is essential, compared to just one in five non-recession proof travelers (20.9%). When we look at the subset Future Partners has dubbed “recession immune travelers” – those who strongly agree that travel is a worthwhile investment even in a recession- a significantly higher 80.5 percent feel that spending money on travel is essential.
- Concerns about the economy have had minimal impacts on these travelers’ travel plans, with 40.9 percent saying they have made no changes in their travel behavior, compared to just 27.6 percent of non-recession proof travelers who say the same. In a further indicator of the recession proof travelers’ resilience, recent uncertainty around U.S. government policy has not impacted their travel plans for an international trip; in fact, over six in ten (60.8%) said they are likely to travel outside of the US for leisure in the next year, as opposed to 31.3 percent of non-recession proof travelers. They are much less likely to do money saving behaviors beyond using rewards programs.
- Another benefit this traveler profile poses? They are more positive about tourism in their own communities. 66.4 percent believe tourism in their community makes it a better place in which to live, compared to 48.3 of non-Recession Proof Travelers.
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