A strong growth in coronavirus cases across the U.S. has brought renewed anxiety among travelers, dampening their travel readiness and trip plans, including for the upcoming holidays. Meanwhile, niche travel for skiing/snowboarding and conventions/group meetings still appears to be moving steadily towards recovery.
IMPORTANT:These findings are brought to you from our independent research, which is not sponsored, conducted or influenced by any advertising or marketing agency. Every week since March 15th, Destination Analysts has surveyed 1,200+ American travelers about their thoughts, feelings, perceptions and behaviors surrounding travel in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic, and explored a variety of topics. The findings presented below represent data collected October 16th-18th.
High concerns about contracting the coronavirus and its impact on personal finances and the national economy rose this week, as numbers of cases soared across nearly the entire United States.
Pessimism about the course the virus will take in the U.S is now clearly on a renewed growth path. Nearly three-quarters of American travelers feel it’s likely our country will have another wave of infections this year; less than 8% feel it’s unlikely.
These darkening feelings did not meaningfully impact safety perceptions about travel, as the average percent deeming the travel activities tracked in our study continued to decline. Openness to travel inspiration (51.7%) and excitement levels (53.8%) for a potential getaway in the near-term remained flat. However, the increased anxiety did adversely affect both travel readiness—those in a “ready to travel” state of mind decreased to a 3-week low 55.5%—and trip plans, as the percent of Americans with trips at least tentatively planned dropped back to 75% after being at 80% for the last few weeks.
The pandemic, and the current state of it, has deterred a number of Americans from holiday travel and celebrations for now. Based on reported holiday season-related travel in 2019 and what American travelers anticipate for the 2020 holiday season, it appears that nearly 25% fewer Americans will be traveling to celebrate the holidays this year. The majority of those not traveling have a pandemic related reason for not doing so, including general fear of the virus and not wanting to risk the health of loved ones. Anticipated participation in holiday traditions is down, with 46.3% of American travelers even saying they are likely to skip one or more holiday season dinner gatherings due to coronavirus safety concerns. Those who WILL travel for the holidays are planning on taking 2.4 trips on average, with 35.4% saying they will travel by air. However, 27.8% plan to decrease their spending on these holiday trips relative to last year. Over one-third (34.8%) plan to test themselves for COVID-19 prior to their trips.
During and beyond the holidays, what might the upcoming ski/snowboard season look like for travel? Of ski/snowboard travelers who have a destination they regularly visit for overnight ski/snowboard trips, 68.3% say they are likely to return to this favored destination on an overnight trip this season. Nearly 30% of these travelers also say they are open to taking a trip to new ski/snowboard destinations, as well. January (32.0%) and February (28.0%) are the top months reported for upcoming ski/snowboard trips, although 20.7% are now reporting they will take such a trip in March (up from 15.2% who reported a March ski/snowboard trip back in August). There has also been modest growth in the percent who say their ski/snowboard trips will include air travel (51.5% from 48.4% in August).
Tracking the recovery of business and convention/group meeting travel, although 71.1% of American travelers overall say they are unlikely to attend conventions until the coronavirus situation is more resolved, this metric is at one of the lowest points it has been during the pandemic. This week 15.7% of American travelers overall—and nearly 40% of convention travelers—say they have plans to attend one or more of these events in the next year, up from 11.1% in May. The percent of convention travelers who report they would be happy if asked to attend such a meeting in the next six months has grown to 49.7% from 40.8% in June. Trust in both the conference organizers to institute protocols that look out for attendees’ health and fellow attendees to behave appropriately as not to spread COVID-19 has also grown significantly.
However, it is important for the travel industry to be realistic about the threat that virtual meetings pose—and the level of preference being expressed for these versus in-person—to the volume and economic impact of this type of travel in the future. While 60% of American travelers say they prefer or strongly prefer in-person to virtual conventions/conferences, one-in-five feel neutral—fine to go either way—and a similar proportion say they prefer virtual. Interestingly, while Millennial and younger travelers are likelier than those in other generations to say they prefer virtual conferences (14.9%) it’s the Baby Boomers who are relatively likelier to “strongly” prefer meeting virtually (10.2%). Among those who attended a virtual convention recently, when asked to compare how satisfied they were with virtually participating compared to in-person, 71.2% reported being satisfied. Dissatisfaction was only expressed by 12.0%.
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