How Visible Federal Activity is Shaping City Travel Decisions

Travel decisions are rarely driven by a single factor. Price, convenience, purpose of trip, personal safety, and overall sentiment about a destination all play a role. Increasingly, however, travelers are also reacting to the atmosphere they expect to encounter once they arrive.

In January, Future Partners asked U.S. travelers a series of questions exploring how the visible presence of federal law enforcement, military, or immigration personnel in public spaces is influencing perceptions of U.S. cities. The findings suggest this issue is not dominant for most travelers, but it is meaningful enough to warrant close attention from destination leaders.

Comfort Levels Are More Likely to Decline Than Improve

When travelers were asked how increased federal activity in public spaces affects their comfort with visiting certain cities, reactions leaned noticeably negative.  Nearly half of travelers (47%) said such visibility would make them feel less comfortable visiting those cities, including 28% who said it would make them much less comfortable. By contrast, about one quarter (24%) said it would make them feel more comfortable, while 29% reported feeling neutral. This spread highlights an important nuance. The issue is not universally polarizing, nor does it produce a single dominant reaction. But among those who do react, discomfort clearly outweighs reassurance.

A Willingness to Avoid Is Present, But Is Not Universal

That discomfort translates into potential behavioral impact for some travelers. When asked how likely they would be to avoid a U.S. destination if they expected a visible federal presence, 46% said they would be very or somewhat likely to do so. About one quarter remained neutral, while 28% said they would be unlikely to avoid the destination. In other words, this is not a fringe concern, but neither is it a guaranteed deterrent. For many travelers, expectations about enforcement visibility sit alongside other considerations rather than overriding them entirely.

Past Behavior Shows Some Impact So Far

Looking backward, relatively few travelers report that this issue has already changed their plans. Just under 10% say they altered travel plans in the past year due to federal law enforcement or ICE activity in cities they had considered visiting. This gap between attitudes and past behavior is notable. It suggests that while concerns exist, they have not yet translated into widespread cancellations or destination switching, at least not on a large scale.

Looking Ahead, Uncertainty Grows

Forward-looking responses tell a slightly different story. Nearly one in four travelers (23%) say they plan to avoid some U.S. cities in the next 12 months due to federal enforcement activity, while another 17% say they are unsure. That level of uncertainty matters. Even if avoidance does not materialize for all of these travelers, hesitation alone can lengthen booking windows, increase comparison shopping, or shift interest toward destinations perceived as calmer or less complex.

What This Means for Destinations

Taken together, the data points to an issue that is emerging rather than fully formed. Federal activity is clearly shaping perceptions for a meaningful segment of the market. For destination leaders, the challenge is less about responding politically and more about responding strategically. Travelers who feel uncertain tend to seek clarity, reassurance, and context. How destinations communicate about safety, visitor experience, and the overall tone of public spaces may matter more than the underlying policies themselves. Just as importantly, this issue does not affect all travelers equally. Understanding which audiences are most sensitive, and how that sensitivity interacts with trip purpose, demographics, and prior travel experience, will be key to making informed decisions.

Join the Conversation

These findings are just one slice of a broader conversation about how social, political, and operational factors are reshaping city travel in real time. In our monthly Future Partners webinar, we dig deeper into the data and bring in an industry expert to discuss how destinations are navigating these challenges on the ground. If you are grappling with questions about traveler confidence, perception management, or emerging headwinds for urban destinations, we invite you to join us.

🗓️The State of the American Traveler Webinar
February 11, 2026
8am PT/11am ET